V-Shaped Recovery

A V-shaped recovery is a term used by economists to describe the decline in various economic indicators followed by a rapid and strong recovery. When this type of economic recovery is observed on a chart, it looks similar to a v shape, hence the name.

• Economists use the term "V-shaped recovery" when describing an economy that is in a sharp correction (recession) and then recovers rapidly, creating a "V" on the chart.
• In most instances, economists use a macroeconomic indicator like the gross domestic product (GDP) when referencing a V-shaped recovery. However, one can also apply it to employment, financial markets, or manufacturing data.
• There have been several examples of countries that have experienced V-shaped recoveries throughout history. The United States during the Covid-19 pandemic and recession in 1953 is one such example.

Economists use a chart to examine the progress of an economy and how various factors affect it. V-shape recoveries typically contain an economic recession followed by a swift and robust recovery that coincides with pre-recession levels. A V-shaped recovery is indeed a highly positive recoil for an economy.

A V-shaped recovery in an economy can happen due to a number of factors, including monetary policies and unpredictable environmental or political conditions. Economic downturns, in general, can happen due to a variety of reasons. These include events that are hard to prepare for, like war, a pandemic, or natural disasters. When occurrences like these happen, they can cause severe disturbances to important economic indicators and factors such as:

• Gross domestic product (GDP)
• Stock indexes
• Income
• Employment
• Manufacturing
• Retail sales

These are broad economic indicators that look at macroeconomic developments. A person can analyze these indicators to better understand an economy and the various components that make it up. If something causes a disturbance to one, or more of these indicators, it causes dramatic economical effects on a chart. Depending on the time frame, it will look like the trend took a nosedive.  

For example, the Covid-19 Pandemic of 2020 caused several indicators in nearly all countries to plummet as the world was forced to shut its doors. This led to severe declines in things like industrial production, employment, and GDP.

One can identify a V-shaped recovery by the sharp correction in these economic factors, signaling that the economy is recovering rapidly. The correction will be sharp. As the economy finds a floor or bottom, indicators will bounce and correct to levels achieved before the event occurred.

For an economy to achieve a V-shaped recovery, it often takes aggressive actions from the government and, in many instances, the private sector. Therefore, a V-shaped recovery is a best-case scenario for an economy to recuperate the losses and continue to grow and expand.

Economists have several terms they use to describe an economy's recovery. Check out some of the other economic recoveries and how they compare to a V-shaped recovery.

• L-Shaped – L-shaped recoveries are often the worst for an economy to experience. It means the economy is in a recession and isn't recovering. The economy is essentially at a standstill, and it can take years for an economy to recover this way.
• U-shaped – An economy experiencing a U-shaped recovery still experiences the severe downturn observed with a V-shaped recovery. However, the recovery takes much longer, and the economy fails to achieve meaningful growth for a sustained period. The recession, in this instance, can take several months and even years to get out of.
• W-shaped – Many times, a W-shaped recovery will look as though it's going to be a V, but the economy falls short and experiences a second dip in the economy. Though the second dip is usually less dramatic than the first, it still indicates the economy is experiencing hardships. After the second correction, the economy will often fully recover.
• K-shaped – A K-shaped recovery denotes an economy that is recovering in different directions. i.e, different sections of an economy follows different paths during the course of recovery making it more random and chaotic.

Here are some examples of V-shaped recovery in real-life scenarios.

Example #1 - Covid-19 Pandemic of 2020

The example of a V-shaped economic recovery is observable in several countries that experienced financial hardships during the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020.

For example, in the United States, the gross domestic product fell from a record at the end of 2019 to levels not seen since 2017. This was a sharp correction as the economy prepared for the worst-hit brought about by a virus with unknown capabilities.

However, as one can see, the levels have been rising relatively quickly as the economy shows signs of recovery. Although the United States is still en route to a complete recovery, many have looked at this as a sign of a V-shaped recovery.

Example #2 - Recession of 1953

The recession of 1953 in the United States was a short-term economic downturn that economists typically attribute to the Korean War and the government's monetary policy at the time.

The recession lasted about ten months as GDP fell 5.9 percent from the previous period and led to a rise in unemployment.  Shortly after, the U.S decided to cut interest rates to support the economy and help it pull through the recession. The monetary policy actions seemed to work as gross domestic product bounced back to nearly pre-recession levels.

The economy rallied back and reversed out of the recession that lasted less than a year. One can observe the sharp reversion on several leading economic indicator charts, signaling a V-shaped recovery.

Example #3 - Germany during the Global Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis stretched between the periods 2007 and 2009 when economies worldwide experienced severe economic hardship. The effects of the global financial crisis were putting stress on banks and financial markets.

Germany was able to pull itself out of the recession, achieve a V-shaped recovery, and prove to be more resilient than other European nations. Even though Germany's economy is heavily reliant on exports, they enforced fiscal and monetary policy measures that increased employment and investment in infrastructure development and social security programs.

Germany's policies to counter the damaging effects of the global financial crisis helped its economy tremendously. Many credits the tax reform Germany put in place in 2009 as one of the most significant reasons the nation was able to recover so quickly. It essentially lowered the corporate tax rate and enabled Germany to compete with other European countries, which led to stronger economic advancement in exports.

This has been a guide to what is V-Shaped Recovery & its meaning. Here we discuss examples of V-shaped recovery in US & Germany, including economic charts. You may also have a look at the following articles to learn more –

• Economic Forecasting
• Housing Bubble
• Business Cycle