Risk Analysis

Risk analysis is the procedure of analyzing and recognizing any kind of risk that could adversely affect the primary business objective or any critical projects that are about to take place in an organization in regards to avoiding or to take necessary initiatives to reduce such risks in the organization.

The risk analysis process helps in assisting the efficient operations of the entity by identifying and evaluating the risk in projects conducted in the organization and helps in resolving and making decisions as to whether to accept the project. It is also considered that conducting risk analysis would be beneficial to the organization to make effective decisions.

• Risk analysis is a systematic process that involves identifying, assessing, and evaluating potential risks to understand their likelihood of occurrence and potential impact. Its objective is to develop strategies to manage or mitigate those risks effectively.
• Risk analysis enables businesses and individuals to make informed decisions by considering the potential risks associated with a specific course of action or project. It involves quantifying and prioritizing risks based on their significance.
• The risk analysis process typically includes identifying risks, assessing their probability and impact, analyzing their interdependencies, and developing risk mitigation strategies or contingency plans.

The risk analysis of a project or any other business operation is about recognizing the adverse effects in an organization before taking up any new important project or changing any essential objective that can impact the entity negatively. The main aim is to estimate the extent of risk in the organization, the methods that can help manage or reduce the risk, and the approaches that can help address such risks. In addition, specific strategies can help analyze the risk in the Projects about to take place in the organization, like the Delphi technique, Swift analysis, Decision tree analysis, Bowtie analysis, etc., in the later stage.

Let us study the process of the analysis in details to understand the concept.

Analyzing risk in a project can have both a positive and negative effect. Such effects can have both worldly and non-materialistic impacts on the organization. A risk is an uncertain event that can have both positive and negative effects.

There are various methods that are commonly used in businesses to assess the risk level. We can o through them in detail below:

Methods of Risk analysis include both Qualitative and Quantitative application techniques. Most projects shall apply Quantitative risk analysis tools in measuring risk, which is overlooked in terms of formal qualitative risks. Here is some of the useful qualitative risk analysis considered to be involved in project management.

1. Delphi Technique - Delphi Technique uses expert opinion to identify, analyze, and evaluate risks on an individual and anonymous basis.
2. SWIFT Analysis – In SWIFT analysis, the team investigates how changes are approved, designed, or planned that might affect the project in any way. It is a systematic team-based approach.
3. Decision Tree Analysis – This analysis is done by proposed decisions and finding different pathways and results due to the proposed findings. After all the probabilities are analyzed, the course of action of modifying and verifying further may take place.

Let us assume that a cosmetics manufacturing company is planning to expand its number of outlets in the city. There are already some very strong competitors who are very well established in the cosmetics market and has good brand name.

For this company, the competitors are a huge risk. It is necessary for the management to devise plans to upgrade its quality and introduce range of products that the competitors do not produce, so as to capture a larger market share. It is also important to search for locations that do not have good cosmetics outlets so that they can establish themselves in those areas.

The above are some of the strategies that the new company should implement to expand its business.

Some importance of risk analysis methods are mentioned below:

• Risk analysis is one of the essential procedures which is not done diligently or not given enough significance will lead to many problems, which may, in turn, could cause the failure of the project.
• A well-analyzed project will have chances of going more smoothly and have a higher chance of success and will do more to reduce risk than any risk plan, no matter how good it may be.
• It will help the business survive competition and retain its brand image and customer base which are some of the main factors of increasing profitability.

Let us identify some benefits of the process.

• Risk analysis methods helps to make very calculated and accurate decisions while performing a project as, without proper research, management of the project would not be considered to give positive results.
• It helps in avoiding the potential losses that could occur in the future. Some risks which can be calculated and avoided and should be analysed for so that the business is able t perform the maximum using its existing resources.
• It helps to determine the level of impact that a risk can have in an organization. This is very important because it helps in devising plans and strategies that will control or minimize the potential risk.

Along with the benefits it is also necessary to look into the limitations of the risk analysis techniques.

• It is measured based on probability, so it cannot give the exact measurement of the risk exposure.
• Risk analysis is based on specific data, and if there is any manipulation in the data or the data is wrong, it will not give the correct results.
• It requires the time and expertise of the person conducting the analysis. In case the person is not aware of all the techniques and methods necessary, then the desired purpose cannot be solved. Also, there is no standard method for its calculation, so it depends on the personal approach.

Quantitative and qualitative analysis are the two approaches to risk analysis. In the case of the Quantitative, the effect of the potential project risk that can be there on the target of the project is evaluated numerically. So the primary purpose of the Quantitative analysis is to quantify the risk exposure and determine the size of the cost and the schedule contingencies.

Whereas, in the case of the qualitative risk analysis techniques, the probability and impact of the potential project risk that can be there on the target of the project is evaluated against a predefined scale. It is a subjective approach, and the primary purpose of qualitative risk analysis is increasing the awareness of the severe risk and creating risk responses to deal with and reduce the effect of these risks on the overall project.

Risk Analysis can be referred to as identifying the different possible threats that can occur in the business or the project and then estimating the likelihood of materializing these threats. On the other hand, risk management is a broader concept that includes risk analysis, and it can be referred to as the process of continuous identification, analysis, evaluation, and monitoring of the risk and then systematically applying the policies, practice, and resources of management to control and mitigate adverse effects of those potential losses.

This has been a guide to what is Risk Analysis. We explain its benefits, example, methods, process & differences between qualitative & quantitative analysis. You can learn more about financing from the following articles –

• Counterparty Risk
• Risk Transfer
• Risk Insurance
• Risk Reversal
• Risk Parity