Debt Deflation

Debt Deflation is an economic concept that delves into growing debt levels and their detrimental effects on the economy. According to the hypothesis, debt levels rise when prices for consumer goods and services decline steadily. It causes a period of financial instability that eventually leads to recession.

The process begins with the economy's excessive debt, causing distress sale and price decline. Thus, the nominal asset value (NAV) decreases with the declining prices. Consequently, a decline in asset values brings pressure on business, leading to depression and insolvency. Later, the business depression causes the velocity of money circulation to slow down.

• Debt deflation theory suggests that rising debt levels can lead to financial instability, recession, reduced demand, lower prices, and decreased spending, which in turn results in increased debt burdens.
• It can lead to decreased consumer spending, high unemployment, higher interest rates, and a recession, which can cause financial difficulties and loan defaults.
• The Fisher debt deflation hypothesis has been helpful in guiding economic strategies to control credit expansion and avoid excessive debt accumulation.
• It is primarily triggered by economic shocks, such as interest rate increases or commodity price drops, and excessive leverage among borrowers who struggle to make loan payments.

Debt deflation derives a direct relationship between a nation's debt level and its price level. A considerable reduction in the amount of debt results in deflation. On the other hand, an increase in price causes the debt load to rise.

During the Great Depression, American economist Irving Fisher introduced the concept of deflation in 1933. The theory suggests that deflation of debt occurs when there is a downward trend in prices, decreased spending, and a rise in debt loads due to high levels of debt. Demand declines as a result of people and businesses cutting back on spending as they try to pay off their debts. It further exacerbates the debt load, resulting in decreased prices and salaries. The debt deflation cycle is challenging for the economy to recover because of the ongoing cycle.

Fisher’s debt deflation hypothesis has been a valuable tool in devising economic strategies that target the control of credit expansion and the avoidance of unwarranted debt accumulation. Today's central banks keep a tight eye on both deflation and inflation to maintain economic equilibrium.

The following are the two leading causes of debt deflation:

1. A sudden shock to the economy, such as an abrupt rise in interest rates or a drop in commodity prices, leads to the deflation of debt. It could also be borrowed with excessive leverage from those who are unable to make their loan payments.
2. The subsequent decline in spending impacts suppliers, and they may react by cutting prices, terminating employees, or even filing for bankruptcy.

Let us look at a few examples to understand the concept better:

Example #1

Let us say a nation, XYZ, went through a period of rapid credit expansion. During this time, people and companies borrowed excessive amounts of money. People began to fall behind on their loan repayments, the economy weakened, unemployment increased, and businesses faced difficulties. It became more difficult for firms to obtain credit as banks became more cautious and tightened their lending rules. Here, debt deflation spiraled out of control as a result of declining expenditures, declining prices, and a surge in defaults.

Example #2

From 1991-2001, Japan's economy experienced a severe recession. As the gross domestic product (GDP) shrank, banks failed, and debtors became insolvent.

The Japanese Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been somewhat negative since 1998. Multiple factors caused this deflation, but some have a more substantial effect. For instance, the discrepancy between the Japanese economy's actual and potential output is referred to as the output gap, which can be a reason to push the inflation rate. A persistently negative output gap was created by removing ostensibly insignificant contributors. The lengthy process of clearing banks' balance sheets and demographic decline, which has reduced expectations for future growth of income and the natural rate of interest, were the two main factors contributing to the growing output gap.

Thus, Japan taught a lesson to combat deflation by concentrating all its efforts on the macro and prudential policy wings, monitoring cross-border money flows, and using the knowledge and expertise to plan efficient backup plans and encourage the development of a robust social security system.

Some of the effects of the deflation of debt are as follows:

1. Decreased Consumer Spending

The decrease in circulation leads to a tightening of the money supply. It increases the dollar's value but also increases the real debt's value. It leads to consumers hoarding money due to fear and a lack of confidence, which can slow growth and worsen deflation as prices fall. They do it because they believe there will be more significant rewards for spending in the future. This situation can be mitigated by reducing spending.

2. High Unemployment

When companies cut down expenses to pay off debt, they often reduce wages and lay off employees. It happens in deflation. Certain companies even file for bankruptcy, which reduces revenue and creates a shortage of jobs. This results in financial difficulties, and people who are having a hard time making ends meet may end up defaulting on their loans, which would be detrimental to the economy.

3. High-Interest Rates

Consumers need help repaying their principal when interest rates rise. It is because deflation lowers the value of collateral held by banks, making borrowing more expensive in reality. Customers are forced to work harder and make more significant out-of-pocket payments as a result of having to repay more debt than was initially borrowed. Hence, instead of paying off their debt, many choose to refinance it.

4. Recession

Over-indebtedness can cause an economy to slow down, leading to a financial crisis. If the situation persists long enough, it may even lead to depression.

This article has been a guide to what is Debt Deflation. Here, we explain the concept along with its examples, causes, and effects. You may also find some useful articles here –

• Interest Rate Effect
• European Debt Crisis
• Debt Default